Postscript

The last few posts have not been written to provide an 'optimistic' view of
Iraq nor to debunk the theories of anyone. They were written as an attempt to
discover whether the charge that Iraq has become a disaster was true; and if so
in what aspect and to what degree. It is a complex question which I have not
answered to my own satisfaction. The possible extent of the problem can be
bounded, or reduced to a certain order of magnitude, using casualty statistics,
troop levels and even levels of civilian casualties. That way you can tell what
it is not or at least, not yet.

But crucially, there is little information on the Delta:  the rate of
change in certain indicators. One can say that US Forces are killing a lot of
bad guys without being able to answer, at least with the data on hand, whether
the enemy are regenerating faster than they are being destroyed. I cast about in
vain for some way to estimate whether the level of corruption in the Iraqi
government, which is a proxy for efficiency and just governance, was increasing
or decreasing. It is the one area for which I truly fear, not in the least
because few Americans have any idea what a distorting gravitational force normal
levels of American prosperity and largesse have in a Third World country. The
sheer capability of America can create a dependency even in richer societies.
One wonders whether the new Iraqi Army will have any concept of operations
constrained by their true resources, without implicitly assuming American
support. Sixty years of America in NATO have arguably weakened indigenous
military capability in a continent which once dominated the world. Sometimes a quagmire is when you are too damned good.

Yet if the road forward is dim, the line of retreat has long ago been cut off
by Islamic fundamentalist terror itself. What can be the point of a return to
America when they came to Manhattan? For good or ill, this thing will end with a
defeat for one side and victory for the other. I did not say joy.