Iraq, Part 1

The number, nature and geographical distribution of US combat deaths in Iraq
provide a statistical indicator of its character. It provides a clue into the
nature of the fighting and helps us answer the questions that are being raised
in the press: 'is Iraq descending into civil war?'; 'is unrest spreading?' Using March, 2004 as a starting point, the overall trend of US deaths is: 

2004	Death	Notable Events
March	52
April	147	Fallujah and Al Sadr uprising
May	88
June	44	Transitional Government
July	61
August	71	Operations against Sadr in Najaf
Sept (est)	90

If one considers three months of casualties in detail, April,
June
and September
2004 from the table in Global
Security Org listing the circumstances under which individual American
soldiers died, clearly the overwhelming percentage of men perished fighting in
the same places, namely the Sunni triangle, notably near Fallujah and in certain
neighborhoods of Baghdad. Even operations against Moqtada al Sadr did
not change the pattern. Let's look at the August figures.

	Circumstances and Place
1	Killed when his patrol was struck by a remotely detonated improvised explosive device near Samarra around 12:30 p.m. Aug. 1.
2	Died in Samarra, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device exploded near his guard post
3	Died due to enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
4	IED detonated near the vehicle he was traveling in while on patrol
5	Died from injuries suffered when an IED detonated near the vehicle he was traveling in while on patrol
6	Died due to enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
7	Died of wounds received in action in the Al Anbar Province while conducting security and stability operations
8	Died of wounds received in action Aug. 2 in the Al Anbar Province while conducting security and stability operations
9	Died as a result of a non-hostile gunshot wound
10	Died in a vehicle accident / He was caught between two motor pool vehicles
11	Died from injuries received from enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
12	Died due to enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
13	Killed when their convoy was attacked with a rocket-propelled grenade and small arms fire near Najaf
14	Killed as a result of enemy action in the An Najaf province
15	Killed as a result of enemy action in the An Najaf province
16	Died August 5, in Landstuhl, Germany, of injuries sustained when an improvised explosive device detonated near his patrol on August 4 in Balad, Iraq
17	Killed as a result of enemy action in the An Najaf province
18	Killed as a result of enemy action in the An Najaf province
19	Died in Baghdad, Iraq, when individuals using small arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades attacked his vehicle
20	Killed when his unit came under attack from anti-Iraqi forces in a western portion of the Baghdad. An insurgent rocket-propelled grenade attack killed the trooper during a mounted patrol
21	Died in a non-combat related incident
22	Killed in action Sunday in the Al Anbar Province while conducting security and stability operations
23	Died at Kirkuk Air Base, Iraq, from wounds received during a mortar attack
24	Died at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., of injuries sustained on July 10 in Ad Dhuha, Iraq, when a rocket propelled grenade detonated near his vehicle
25	Killed when a CH-53 helicopter crashed in the Al Anbar Province about 10:15 p.m. while flying in support of security and stabilization operations
26	Killed when a CH-53 helicopter crashed in the Al Anbar Province about 10:15 p.m. while flying in support of security and stabilization operations
27	Died in Najaf, Iraq, when his unit came under small arms fire and grenade attack
28	Killed when a CH-53 helicopter crashed in the Al Anbar Province about 10:15 p.m. while flying in support of security and stabilization operations
29	Died of wounds received in action in the Al Anbar Province while conducting security and stability operations, when an improvised explosive device detonated near his mounted reconnaissance patrol vehicle.
30	Died due to hostile action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
31	Killed in an improvised explosive attack in the northern part of Baghdad
32	Died as a result of hostile fire in Najaf, Iraq
33	Died as a result of hostile fire in Najaf, Iraq
34	Died in Najaf, Iraq, when his M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle hit an improvised explosive device
35	Died in Ar Ramabi, Iraq, when his M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle hit an improvised explosive device
36	Died from injuries received from enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
37	Died ifrom injuries received from enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
38	Killed by a series of anti-Iraqi force attacks in eastern Baghdad when his patrol came under small arms and rocket-propelled grenade attack.
39	Killed in action in the Al Anbar Province while conducting security and stability operations
40	Died in Baghdad, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near his checkpoint
41	Killed in Sadr City, Iraq, when his patrol came under enemy small arms fire
42	Killed by small arms fire in eastern Baghdad
43	Killed in a non-combat related vehicle incident in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
44	Killed in action in Al Najaf while conducting security and stability operations and another died after a vehicle accident in the Al Anbar Province
45	Died from injuries received due to enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
Polish	Al Hillah (near Karbalah)
	Al Hillah (near Karbalah)
46	Killed in action while conducting security and stability operations in the Al Anbar Province
47	Unspecified location
48	Killed by an improvised explosive device near Samarra
49	Killed by an improvised explosive device near Samarra
50	Killed by RPG in Baghdad
51	Killed in action Anbar Province
52	Died of wounds received in action while conducting security and stability operations in the Al Anbar Province
53	Died of wounds received in action while conducting security and stability operations in the Al Anbar Province
54	Died of wounds received in action while conducting security and stability operations in the Al Anbar Province
55	Killed in a vehicle accident when the humvee he was in hit an M1A1 tank, causing the vehicle to flip Saturday in the Al Anbar Province
56	Died due to enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
57	Killed around 4:45 p.m. when their convoy was attacked by a roadside bomb in west Mosul
58	Died of wounds suffered when a rocket-propelled grenade hit a patrol in an unspecified place
59	Died as the result of a vehicle accident near Fallujah when an M915A tractor and an M106A2 tanker trailer rolled over an embankment
60	Died as a result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
61	Died in Tikrit, Iraq, when his tractor-trailer rolled over as he attempted to access a pontoon bridge
62	Killed in a mortar attack in Baghdad
63	Died as result of enemy action in An Najaf, Iraq
64	Died from injuries received due to enemy action in Babil Province, Iraq
65	Died from injuries received due to enemy action in An Najaf, Iraq
66	Killed after the truck he was driving in rolled off an embankment about 4:45 a.m. near Fallujah
67	Died in Habbaniyah, Iraq, of non-combat related injuries
68	Died in a non-hostile vehicle accident in Al Anbar Province, Iraq
69	Died due to enemy action in Babil Province, Iraq
70	Died as result of enemy action near Mosul, Iraq
71	Died in Khutayiah, Iraq, when his military vehicle hit an improvised explosive device (near the Syrian border?)

The reader is invited to examine the listed casualty details of every month
for himself. But like the listing above, they will confirm that the American
casualties have occurred in a limited number of places. Journalist and blogger
Jason van Steenwyk, who served in Iraq, says in his post, Hardly
Tet, that we should recognize combat operations in Iraq for what they
objectively are, neither minimizing nor inflating the estimate.

So six Americans are wounded in Baghdad and the New York Times thinks the
sky is falling. ... I hate to break it to Andrew Sullivan, who seems to be
losing heart. But this looks like a status quo to me. ...

Not very effective stuff. Here's what "increasing sophistication"
would look like:

American armored vehicles are being damaged or destroyed not with suicide
bombers--which are by definition a "fire and forget" weapon
system--but with volley-fired RPG-18s supported by skillfully employed
automatic weapons covering their flanks and withdrawal routes.

American convoys running into modern anti-tank mines on a regular basis
(as opposed to mortar shells set up as IEDs.) These mines are made more
effective by an obstacle plan, and the IED ambushes are supported by
automatic weapons and Dragonov sniper fire. Reinforcement units are hit.

Mortar fire is not random, but somehow manages to consistently land close
to US mortar and artillery positions, headquarters buildings, and fuel and
ammo storage areas. When an American convoy is attacked, insurgents manage
to drop a curtain of mortar rounds along the withdrawal routes between the
Americans and the insurgents. The enemy begins to seek direct fire
engagements with Americans from positions of advantage, finds them, and
sustains them for more than 15 minutes. American tanks are destroyed by
Milan, Dragon, Sagger, or similar 2nd generation anti-tank missiles, from
the flanks or rear.

While these figures do not address all of its dimensions, I hope they provide some objective basis for bounding claims that are made. Based on the pattern of casualties, it is hard to reach the conclusion that Iraq is descending into anarchy or that the resistance is spreading uncontrollably. If that were true we would be seeing a different distribution of casualties. Combat in Iraq is complex politico-military phenomenon. Some aspects of the psychology and politics are covered in the CSIS Report. I hope to move onto other aspects tomorrow.