The Revenge of the Dittoheads

In December 2004, Juan
Cole asserted that the Iraq the Model blogsite was not representative of
Iraqi opinion. Cole believed that Omar was far too pro-American to be taken
seriously and presented as proof an April 2004 Gallup poll which concluded that
most Iraqis believed US forces were detestable occupiers. The Gallup
poll was based on a sample of 3,500 Iraqis across the country from a variety
of ethnic groups.

"My allegation that the IraqTheModel website is far outside the norm
of Iraqi public opinion as measured by polling has caused a stir in the
weblogging world among, apparently, dittoheads who can't read polls."

On Balance, do you think of the Americans mostly as Occupiers or
liberators?

Occupiers: 71 %

Liberators 19%

etc.

Although that poll was a year old and taken at the height of fighting in Iraq
Cole had presented his data and awaited a response. Iraq
the Model answers with a new poll taken by the Al-Sabah
newspaper based on a sample of slightly fewer than 5,000 people living around
Baghdad. Although it is not strictly comparable to the Gallup Poll, the Al-Sabah
poll suggests things may be a little more complex than Professor Cole believes.
(Hat tip: Mudville
Gazette)

1-The poll was of 4974 Iraqis living in and around Baghdad.

2-Will the security problems cause you to? Not come out and vote the day of
elections = 18.3% Come out and vote the day of elections = 78.3% No opinion =
3.4%

3-Do you support military action against the terrorists?Yes = 87.7 %No =
11.1% Don�t Know = 1.2%

If these were the results that appeared after taking samples from in and
around Baghdad which is considered to be the most dangerous area in the
country (and inhabited by lots of Sunni Iraqis by the way!), then what would
the results look like if the samples were taken from Basra or Erbil??

Of course, what will really count are the Iraqi election results on January
30. While a high voter turnout may not necessarily indicate a rejection by the
Sunni community of the insurgency, it would certainly be a strong indicator that
the Iraqi nation as a whole did not support it. Who's right? Juan Cole or Iraq
the Model? We'll know in three weeks.