The Ukraine

Breaking news is now riveted on events in the Ukraine, where a Prime
Ministerial candidate (Viktor Yanukovich) supported by Moscow is being accused
to

trying to steal the election from pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko.

The Central Electoral Commission said Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych won
49.4 percent of the vote in the election and Yushchenko had 46.7 percent.
European and U.S. monitors said vote counting was flawed. The future of the
former Soviet republic of 47 million people, sandwiched between the European
Union and Russia, is in the balance 13 years after it declared independence,
with Yushchenko advocating a free-market economy and closer links to the
European Union and Yanukovych urging the country foster deeper ties with
Russia.

The announcement of Yushchenko as a "so-called people's president, and
calls not to fulfill decisions of legitimate power, are enormously dangerous
and may lead to unpredictable consequences," President Leonid Kuchma said in
his first statement, posted on his official Web site.

Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators are in the streets surrounding
Yanukovich's headquarters; Russian Special Forces have been reported by former
US Congressman

Bob Schaffer as guarding the Kremlin's candidate. Schaffer is an election
observer. (Via
Instapundit)

Russian special forces dressed in Ukrainian Special forces uniforms are in
Kyiv. Ukrainian militia have been instructed by the mayor to protect the
people from the Russian troops. Ukrainian militia have established a hotline
for Ukrainians to report any incidents with the Russians and pledged to
protect Ukrainians. These Russians flew into Ukraine this morning. They're now
surrounding the administration buildings they say "to protect Kuchma (the
outgoing president and his PM Yanukovich). Following is a chain of email
messages I've been sending by blackberry. Please pass along to others. Bob
Schaffer.

... A representative of the Greek Catholic Church (a man who appeared to be
a priest -- dressed as one) announced at the demonstration that he was
speaking on behalf of the Greek Catholic Church, the Kyiv Patriarchiat and
several Protestant denominations (Lutheran was the only specific one I heard
but there were several others). He said this coalition of churches recognizes
Yushchenko as president.

Yuschenko is now leading one million people from the square and surrounding
streets to the administration headquarters of the Ukrainian government. He is
in front of the column and many fear he is vulnerable to getting shot. They
should be at the steps in 15 mins. Keep in mind, this is where the Russian
special forces are stationed, dresses in Ukrainian garb.

Yushchenko declared himself the victor and took an oath of office and act
which Yanukovich's allies described as a "farce".

Vaclav Havel has issued a statement in support of Yushchenko (via
Instapundit again), according to Radio Free Europe, but the statement is couched
in very general terms. (Again via
Instapundit)

Allow me to greet you in these dramatic days when the destiny of your
country is being decided for decades ahead. You have its future in your hands.
All trustworthy organizations, both local and international, agree that your
demands are just. That is why I wish you strength, perseverance, courage and
good fortune with your decisions.

Yours truly,

Vaclav Havel

American, European and Canadian diplomats all expressed concern at the
Kremlin's actions, creating remarkable psychological solidarity which is in
stark contrast towards the wrangling over Iraq. The

Guardian intoned (The Guardian!)

International reactions to the presidential elections in Ukraine have been
remarkably uniform. From the US, through the European parliament, to Nato, the
view is that serious irregularities and worse marred Sunday's second-round
run-off. Expressions of concern and dismay might have little practical effect
if it were not for the fact that the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko,
yesterday claimed victory over the official winner, Viktor Yanukovich, raising
the stakes both at home and abroad. Demonstrators massing dramatically in
freezing temperatures in Kiev have invoked the example of Georgia last year,
when the "rose revolution" overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze in favour of a
pro-westerner.

Both Yanukovich and Yushchenko are negotiating to avoid an open breach.
Although the Kremlin has deployed some Special Forces units to the Ukraine, it
seems highly unlikely that Russia would risk an all out military campaign to
bring the Ukraine within the fold. Although there are no explicit NATO security
guarantees to the Ukraine, there have been many half-promises and partial
arguments. The

NATO website summarizes the situation thus:

NATO-Ukraine relations were formally launched in 1991, when Ukraine joined
the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (later renamed the Euro-Atlantic
Partnership Council), immediately upon achieving independence with the
break-up of the Soviet Union. A few years later, in 1994, Ukraine became the
first of the Commonwealth of Independent States to join the Partnership for
Peace � a major programme of practical security and defence cooperation
between NATO and individual Partner countries. ...

Relations between the Allies and Ukraine hit a low point in 2002, when the
Alliance expressed grave concerns about reports of the authorisation at the
highest level of the transfer of air-defence equipment from Ukraine to Iraq.
Yet NATO remained engaged in its cooperation with Ukraine, demonstrating the
strength of the Allies' commitment to develop strong NATO-Ukraine relations
and to encourage Ukraine to work towards closer Euro-Atlantic integration. 
In May 2002, just before the fifth anniversary of the Distinctive Partnership,
President Leonid Kuchma boldly announced Ukraine�s goal of eventual NATO
membership. In response, at a meeting in Reykjavik later that month, NATO
Foreign Ministers agreed with their Ukrainian counterpart to explore ways to
take the NATO-Ukraine relationship to a qualitatively new level. This paved
the way for the adoption of the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan by Ukrainian and
Allied foreign ministers at their meeting in Prague in November 2002.

The tug-of-war between Russia and NATO now in evidence was discernible even
then. In this crisis, the counterweight of NATO is effectively the power of the
United States, which has slowly been positioning itself not only on the western
marches of the former Soviet Union but also in Central Asia. A

list of US allies in Iraq illustrates this dramatically. These include the
Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Mongolia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Slovakia, Albania, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Armenia; almost
as if the entire former Warsaw Pact had come under CENTCOM control. If that were
not enough, the United States has acquired a

network of military bases at Khanabad in Uzbekistan, and at Manas in
Kyrgyzstan.