The Last Two Weeks

Not much time to post today. But here's a roundup of some news in Iraq.

Date	Story
October 15, 2004	US continues to pound Fallujah as Ramadan begins -- cross border fire with Syria exchanged at Qusabayah
October 15, 2004	US arrests spokesman for the Fallujah city delegation -- Falluja police commander also taken into custody
October 15, 2004 16:53 Z	US begins major operation in Fallujah with troops and targeted fires  -- "not an offensive to retake Falluja, but rather to lay the groundwork for that eventual offensive"
October 15, 2004 14:24 Z	Fallujah religious leader threatens holy war over US onslaught
October 14, 2004	Allawie threatens Fallujah over Zarqawi -- "hand him over"
October 13, 2004	Radical Sunni, Shi'ite groups help free U.S. photographer "An American photojournalist who was kidnapped during a photo shoot in Baghdad Sunday has been driven into the center of Baghdad and set free � after what appears to have been unprecedented cooperation between Sunni clerics and hard-line Shi'ite fighters loyal to the renegade cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Both are rivals and oppose the U.S. presence in Iraq. The kidnapping was first reported in The Washington Times. "We find it encouraging that the level of tolerance for kidnapping among anti-Western groups in Iraq seems to be declining," said a security source, who declined to be identified."
October 13, 2004	U.S. Raids in 2 Sunni Cities Anger Clerics and Residents -- New York Times description of outrage at raids on seven Ramadi mosques, fires on Fallujah.
October 13, 2004	Insurgent Alliance Is Fraying In Fallujah -- Long backgrounder from the Washington Post 'Locals, Fearing Invasion, Turn Against Foreign Arabs'
October 12, 2004	Operations against the Enemy in Ramadi -- Mosques searched, fire returned on them. No longer sanctuaries.
October 9, 2004	Al-Sadr's Shiite Militia Agrees to Start Handing in Weapons, but Violence Continues in Sunni Areas -- AP
October 5, 2004	U.S. Warplanes Bomb Vast Baghdad Slum; American Troops and Insurgents Clash in Ramadi -- AP reports U.S. warplanes pounded the vast Baghdad slum of Sadr City overnight
October 4, 2004	Armed Iranian Fighters Arrested in Samarra The Interim Iraqi Interior Minister stated that armed Iranian agents have been arrested among rebels fighting in the city of Samarra. The Al-Hurriya TV aired footage of Falah Naqib who accused Iran of backing insurgents in this presently volatile region of Iraq. Iraq Grabs 42 Foreign Fighters in Samarra -- Reuters including 18 Egyptians and 18 Sudanese
October 2, 2004	US Retakes Samarra -- The actual NYT headline is "The conflict in Iraq: military; aided by Iraqis, U.S. Seizes part of rebel town"

There were 33
US deaths in the month by October 13, 2004, on track to reach 70+ by
month's end. Despite the offensive nature of activities, US casualties are
actually trending lower than September. A reminder that one is not necessarily
safer leaving the enemy alone.

---

If it was possible to speak of a tactical encirclement of Fallujah in April,
it may be meaningful to think of a wider, operational encirclement that has
taken place since then. The keystone of course, was dealing with the Shi'ite
insurgency first, specifically the Al-Sadr threat in Baghdad and Najaf. That was
a classic solution to the "two front war" problem. Establishing an
interim Iraqi government created the political preconditions to isolate the
Sunni rebels. The silent part of the encirclement was the development of
intelligence assets, whose only physical manifestation was the arrival of smart
bombs on specific targets.

Now comes the sequenced reduction of mutually supporting enemy systems. There
have probably been hundreds of minor, unnoticed operations directed against
enemy nodes. One of these made the news
on October 12, 2004.

For the past two months, most of Camp Lejeune's 24th Marine Expeditionary
Unit has worked to take charge in northern Babil Province south of Baghdad as
part of two-month operation punctuated by a thrust north over the past week.
The MEU, which left Lejeune in July, is trying to cut off routes used by
terrorists and Iraqi insurgents, MEU spokesman Capt. Dave Nevers said by
telephone during a lull in the fighting at about 1:30 a.m. Iraqi time. Nevers
said Marine forces took control of a bridge over the Euphrates River. It's
also seized a large cache of weapons with help from the reserve 2nd Battalion,
24th Marine Regiment. ...

Nevers said the MEU's small craft company has been pulling security patrols
along the Euphrates River. ... Nevers said that over the past two months,
Marines have captured 160 criminals and anti-Iraqi forces.  "Last
week they rounded up another 50 suspected militants in a raid spearheaded by
the 24th MEU's Force Reconnaissance Platoon and Iraqi SWAT units," Nevers
said. "The Iraqi SWAT force is emerging as an elite unit." According
to the Department of Defense, more than 700 Iraqis have been killed defending
their country from insurgents since the end of major combat operations.
"In many respects, they are at greater risk than we are," Nevers
said.

The "big show" if it comes, will be something of an anticlimax, the
period at the end of a long sentence. Many in the press will see the period and
never read the preceding phrases, which may be the inevitable consequence in an
industry where  news is equated with spectacle. "If it bleeds, it
leads". It is unfortunate that for the men who make up the grist of the
news mill another phrase is often true. Who leads, bleeds.